Mel's Market Report November 2019
Whey - The market has moved upwards in recent weeks, this is due to short supply options now from Ireland and increased European prices. Ireland will come back at the end of March so things should ease back then.
SMP - Prices continue to rise with strong global demand for product from the European markets. Q4/Q1 trading levels are high with some marginal buying opportunities if you are in the right place at the right time.
Butter - Some good news, the fat markets are pretty flat with plenty of stock in storage across Europe and there is currently slow demand which is aiding some marginal price reduction.
Milk flow is pretty much the same as last year.
OILS AND FATS
Rapeseed - Overall, the market has been relatively quiet with the recent harvest doing little to appease pricing levels. So, in 2018 we saw UK planting for rapeseed at 601000 hectares, almost the same as 2017 which was around 600000 hectares. In relative terms this is not a large crop and the low planting was also mirrored in the EU.
2019 planting in the EU was also forecasted to be ‘same to lower’ and within the UK a staggering 10% to 15% lower.
In addition to this we are seeing farmers ripping up rapeseed crops because of flea beetle, this has been predominantly in the South East but now officially widespread. So the outlook for rapeseed is looking tight, currency has marginal effect as this crop is predominantly traded sterling, some are already looking to switch to sunflower which offers a much better buy at present.
Palm – Palm has been trading higher driven by strong physical demand and support from the futures market. In the wake of the further escalating trade war between US and China heavy buying activity was noted which pushed prices upwards.
Currants – New crop came in bigger than last year which has aided in lowering the price on the first deliveries.
Sultanas – Leaving Brexit uncertainties aside the Turkish new crop came in at 300,000 + mt. But not even a 50,000 mt increase over last year has resulted in lowering prices against first shipments. Advice is that March/April will hopefully bring about a downward adjustment as speculation starts again in earnest over the prospects for the 2020 crop.